A horse racing system is simply a set of logic based rules that identifies certain horses for you to bet on.
An example of a very simple system (albeit not a profitable one) could be as follows:
Bet on a horse, IF that horse was a favourite in it’s last race AND the horse finished second last time out.
Using a horse racing system can be great way of quickly finding profitable horses to bet on.
But the trouble with using a system that you have purchased from someone or a system that is widely known to the betting public, is that many other people will be using that exact same system.
And all the other people who are using the same system that you are using, and betting on the same horses that you will be betting on, will be driving the odds of those horses down.
Possibly to the point where it is no longer profitable to bet on those horses.
This is why creating and using your own unique and profitable horse racing system is ideal.
So how can you go about creating your own system?
All good systems start off with a hunch.
Let’s say you’ve been watching a lot of National Hunt racing and you think you’ve noticed that horses who have fallen in their last race tend to win a lot less races after that fall, than their betting odds suggest they should.
If that turned out to be true, it could be the basis of a profitable laying system, or a profitable backing system where you opposed those horses.
But the only way to find out if your hunch was true would be test it against a large amount of historical results.
Doing this manually would be extremely time consuming, but there is software available that can test these sorts of hunches for you with a few clicks of your mouse.
Software such as Proform Racing’s system builder (quite expensive) or web based system builders such as HorseRaceBase (not so expensive).
All horse racing systems are created by a process of backfitting. That simply means the rules you set for the system are tested against a historical data set.
When you are adding rules to your horse racing system it is important not to “overfit.
Overfitting means adding rules that make the systems previous results more profitable, without being able to explain to yourself why that rule should make the system work any better.
An example of a bad overfitting rule that you should not include in your systems would be “don’t bet on Sundays”.
If you added that rule to a system and it made the previous results more profitable, it is probably just a coincidence. Which means when you use that system in the future, that rule will not help you. (And may in fact hinder your future results.)
To ensure a system you’ve created has not been overfitted and will still be profitable in the future, you should paper trade the system for a few months to see if the system is still profitable, before betting any money on the systems selections.
The process of developing a good system from start to finish can be a lengthy process.
However, I believe it is well worth it in order to have your own unique system.
But even if you don’t want to go to the trouble of creating your own system, you can still make money from your betting.
Just let an expert pick the horses to bet on for you.
You can find the tipsters that I follow and recommend at the link below:
Until next time,