Dealing With Downswings

The nature of betting is that downswings will happen.

Especially if you’re mainly betting on sports where most selections have fairly high odds such as horse racing.

Even if you are a profitable bettor over the long term, if you’re regularly betting on odds greater than evens, you will lose more bets than you win.

Sometimes a lot more!

I just took a quick glance at the Winners Odds tipster portfolio and despite it being a profitable portfolio, the average strike rate is only around 30%.

You can see for yourself here:

That means on average, for every 100 bets placed, 70 of them are going to be losers.

So how can you deal with that?

Since you can’t avoid losing runs, the next best thing is to be able to accept them.

You can limit the damage to your bankroll from losing runs by putting a sensible bankroll management strategy in place.

But whilst this sort of mathematical approach to betting is great, it doesn’t always consider the mental strain that losing runs can cause.

So here’s a little trick you can use that does take that into account that could make you a much happier bettor.

Regardless of how much you are betting at the moment, for the next two or three months, drop your stake size down to micro stakes.

I’m talking the likes of 10 or 20 pence.

Over this period, record all of your bets and take a look at how long your biggest losing run was.

Because two or three months is a fairly short time frame and therefore a relatively low sample size of bets I want you to take the total amount lost in your longest losing run and double it.

Finally, multiply that last figure up to the size of stakes you would normally be betting.

If you were betting 0.10p and you usually bet £10.00 then multiply by 100… if your normal stakes are £20 then multiply by 200 etc.

Take a look at that final figure and ask yourself, would I be comfortable with losing this amount of money or is this something I would worry about?

If you could comfortably lose that amount of money, great.

But, if losing that amount of money is something that would worry you it is time to think about lowering your usual stake size.

If you already record your results you don’t necessarily have to do a three month experiment to work this out.

You could just look at your longest losing run over the past few months and double it.

The main thing is that you think about it and make adjustments where you need to.

Because regardless of whether you think about it or not, the losing runs are going to happen and you’re going to be a lot less worried when they do if you are prepared for them.

The old saying “failing to prepare is preparing to fail” couldn’t ring more true here.

You’ve got to endure the losing runs to reap the rewards of the long term profits.

Until next time,
Kenny Turnbull