Big Odds Doesn’t Equal Big Value

Contrary to popular belief, big odds doesn’t equal big value…. Well not always anyway.

A good value bet comes from placing a bet at higher odds than the true chance of that selection winning.

But “higher” odds doesn’t necessarily mean “high” odds.

For instance, take these two examples.

If you reckoned a selections true odds of winning were 50/50 (or 2.0 in odds terms) and the bookmaker was offering odds of 2.2 you would be getting an expected value on that bet of +10%.

If you reckoned another selections true odds of winning were 10.00 and the bookmaker was offering odds of 11.00 you would still be getting an expected value of +10% on that bet.

Just because the odds in the second example were bigger, didn’t mean the value any bigger.

And I’d much rather take the bet in the first example over the bet in the second example as you will experience a lot less variance when betting at lower odds.

Value odds are all relative to the actual chance of a selection winning.

But too many people either forget this or let their ego get the better of them, and opt to always be looking for the next long shot winner so they can gloat to their mates about their big win.

Meanwhile passing up the much more reliable profit from short priced value bets.

I know which I’d rather go after, what about you?

Until next time,
Kenny Turnbull

P.S. If you’re looking for tipsters who regularly advise value bets, check out the ones I recommend here: