As I promised yesterday, today I’m going to show you how you can avoid making the mistake, that even so called racing “experts” make, when deciding whether to have a bet.
The fact is, the reasons most often cited for making a bet are not good reasons. Here’s a couple of examples.
“The soft ground today should suit the horse”
“The horse ran very impressively on its last time out.”
Why are these commonly cited reasons, not a good reason to bet on horse?
Because the only way you can make a profit from betting in the long term is to bet on horses who’s odds are higher than they ought to be, and you can do this by looking for horses that you believe the betting markets have underestimated.
When you think about it like that, you can clearly look at the two examples above of commonly cited reasons to have a bet, and quickly realized that neither of them give us any clues as to whether the horse has been underestimated or overestimated by the betting markets.
The betting markets have likely already taken into account that the horse appears to be suited to today’s going and that it had a good run last time out.
The odds will already reflect this information, so there is no obvious value in making a bet on a horse based on that information.
A better reason to have a bet would be if you believed that the betting market had underestimated the horses ability on today’s going based on the horse being unfit when it last raced on that ground.
Or that you believe the betting market and the consensus of the racing media has underestimated a horses performance last time out and you believe the horse had performed far more impressively.
Both of those statements take into account whether or not the horse has been underestimated and therefore are good reasons to make a bet.
Yes, it takes a lot more time and effort to come to those conclusions, as a pose to the first set of reasons presented, but that’s what it takes if you want to profit from your own selections.
What I’ve said might put a lot of people off racing, for others it might encourage you to be more thorough in your bet selection process. You might even enjoy the challenge of it. I do at least…
But it doesn’t need to be so difficult to make a profit from your betting.
You can just back the selections of someone who’s already doing all that hard work and who has proven themselves to be profitable. Or do what I do and back the selections of certain tipsters along with your own selections.
And if you’re wondering what tipsters I recommend following, you can find the ones that I back here:
Until next time,