Cheltenham Analysis: Queen Mother Champion Chase


sire de grugyFaugheen’s price shortened to 1.9 to make him the odds on favorite and the unbeaten horse won in style today. Hurricane Fly managed to finish 3rd giving us a profit of 2.33pts on my advised each way bet yesterday at odds of 11.00.

I’ve been looking at tomorrows champions chase in some detail and here are my thoughts.

Major Players

Sprinter Sacre

Sprinter Sacre has the form and experience to win and won this race back in 2013, however Sprinter Sacre was pulled up at Kempton on 27th December 2013 due to an irregular heartbeat. His heartbeat quickly corrected itself and he made a return to racing on the 17th of January 2015 at Ascot were he came second by three lengths to dodging bullets.

Sprinter Sacre certainly has what it takes to win this race but with his underlying heart problem and recently being beaten by dodging bullets I don’t think this horse should be the favourite. No bet for me.

Current Odds: 3.5 General Price

Sire De Grugy

Last years winner Sire De Grugy also has a chance of winning this race, he has previous form at Cheltenham however he made a couple mistakes at Newbury in early February and unseated his rider whilst in 2nd to get beaten by Mr Mole. I think that Sire De Gurgy should be the favourite in this race and if he jumps well tomorrow he is in with a very good chance of winning.

Current Odds: 4.33 Betfair

Champagne Fever

Champagne Fever has beaten both dodging bullets and sizing europe last year and won his last race, a grade 2 chase at Gowran Park. It’s not all good though, he did fall in January at Thurles and I’m fairly wary of backing horse who have recently fallen as this can often knock their confidence. He ran well at Gowran Park but that was no where near as challenging a race as this one. Whether or not he proves to be a danger on the day, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Current Odds: 7.00 Boyle Sports

Dodging Bullets

Beat this races favourite Sprinter Sacre when he was last out at Ascot in January. Dodging Bullets is a very good horse but unfortunately never seems to hold his form into the spring. I’m not counting him out yet though, this race has no obvious winner and he might just have what it takes on the day to get a win.

Current Odds: 6.5 General Price

The Overpriced Longshot

Sizing Europe

Currently sitting at odds of 50 to 1, this price looks ridiculously big for this horse. A regular course and distance winner with decent form. He hasn’t proved to be as good as the top 4 horses in the betting but a price of 50/1 is very harsh and I would not be surprised to see him coming second or third here. Definitely worth a small each way bet.

Current Odds: 51.00 General Price

Advised Bets

1pt Win Sire De Grugy @ 4.33 Betfair

0.25pts Each Way Sizing Europe @ 51.00 General Price

As always, Good Luck.

Come back tomorrow for my analysis of Ryanaire Chase.