The only way to profit from your betting in the long run is to take value.
This simply means only betting on selections who’s chances of winning are greater than the odds available would suggest.
To do so requires an accurate degree of judgement when evaluating a horses chances of winning, which isn’t something that comes naturally to most people.
It is however a skill you can develop over time, and by far the quickest way to develop that skill is to focus on analysing a specific type of racing.
For example, You might choose to specialise in races of a certain distance and a specific race course.
What area of racing you choose to specialise in is entirely up to you.
But I would suggest picking an area of racing that you are interested in, as you will need to spend a considerable amount of time studying these races if you are to become reasonably good at judging a horses chances of winning those races.
When studying a specific type of racing, you want to try and find out what factors play a major role a horse winning those races and use this knowledge to better assess a horses chances of winning.
For example, you want to asking questions like: Does this track have a considerable draw bias over certain distances? – or – Do front runners tend to win more of these specific type of races compared to other races?
Knowing the answers to questions like these will allow you to better estimate a horses chances of winning a race within your chosen niche of racing, and therefore give you an advantage over the bookies.
When you can accurately guess a horses chances of winning a race, you can create a tissue price for the race and compare your tissue price to the odds available at the bookmakers to see whether or not you will be taking value betting on a horse.
If your look for an easy way to compile your own tissue prices, I’ve created a spreadsheet tool that does just that.
You can try it out here: www.WinnersOdds.com/Tissue-Price-Tool/
Until next time,
Kenny Turnbull
