When Should You Stop Following A Tipster?
As soon as they advise a losing bet?
After a bad week of bets?
At the end of a winning streak?
After a losing month?
After making a loss 2 or 3 months on the trot?
Never?
It’s a tricky question.
You don’t want to stop following a tipster just because their in the middle a bad losing run.
No matter how good a tipster is, losing runs will happen and if you are one of those people who jump ship after a few losing bets, and hop about from tipster to tipster, you will never make any money.
So how do you avoid being one of those people without holding on too long to a service that is going down hill rapidly.
Here’s a rough rule that you can use to test whether or not you should stop following a tipster.
If a tipster is having a bad losing spell, divide 100 by that tipsters historical strike rate.
For example, if a tipsters historical strike rate was 30% you would take 100 and divide it by 30% to get the number 333. (rounded to the nearest whole number)
If the strike rate was 20% you would come to the number 500. (100 / 0.2)
This is the number of bets you will need to analyze to get a clear picture of whether the tipster is performing within a level of expected variance or if the tipster is no longer going to be profitable.
If a tipster is any good, they should be able to show a profit over this number of bets.
The lower the strike rate, the more bets you will need to look at to get a clear picture and vice versa.
So once you have calculated the number of bets you need to analyze. (call this number x), look at the results for that tipsters last x number of bets.
If the tipster is still showing a profit over this number of bets, keep following the tipster for the time being and keep analyzing this number until it either shows a loss or the tipsters losing run ends.
If the tipster is showing a loss over their last x bets then you should stop following a tipster.
As I mentioned earlier, this is just a rough rule that you can use.
If you know other information that might be effecting the performance of the tipster you should obviously also take that into account when deciding whether or not to continue following their advice.
An example of this would be if a tipster regularly writes about their performance and the reasoning behind their selections in their emails.
I would be very wary of following a tipster who reveals in their emails that they aren’t completely focused at the moment or has something going on in their life that is distracting them from their betting etc.
You can see the tipsters I recommend along with their results here:
http://winnersodds.com/tipster-portfolio
Until next time,
Kenny Turnbull
