If you’ve joined a number of tipster services in the past, then you’ve probably had a run in with the curse of the new tipster.
What is the curse of the new tipster?
It’s when you join a tipster service that is fairly new, and the tipsters results so far have been excellent. But as soon as you join, the results start going downhill rapidly.
This seems to happen more often than it should.
But is it all in our head?
There is numerous scientific studies that show people are more likely to remember negative experiences, than they are to remember positive ones. This is called negativity bias and I think it definitely plays a part explaining the curse of the new tipster.
But there are also a few other reasons that can explain why the curse of the new tipster phenomenon occurs.
Most tipsters are proofed for a period of at least 3 months by a tipster platform to prove they are capable of producing good results before their tips are available to be sold to the public.
If you were cynical then you might be inclined to believe that the past results for a lot of tipsters have been doctored to be better than they really are — or completely made up altogether — in order to trick people into paying for the tips.
And whilst I have no doubt things like that do go on at a few fly-by-night tipster operations, that still doesn’t explain why ethically run tipster services experience the curse of the new tipster.
The real reason why this happens is a bias in the proofing process itself.
As I’ve already mentioned, for a tipster to be considered good enough for their tips to be made available through a tipster platform, the tipster usually has to have their results proofed for at least 3 months, and will only be accepted if their results show a decent profit over that period.
The problem with this is that it is a short enough period of time for luck to still play a significant role in affecting the tipsters results.
This means an okay tipster who’s results have been above average during the proofing period is more likely to pass the proofing process than a great tipster who has experienced below average results during their proofing period.
So when a tipster service is first launched, you are usually seeing that tipsters results in their best possible light.
That’s why I recommend waiting 2 or 3 months after a tipster service has actually been launched to see if the tipsters results keep up, before deciding whether to follow that tipster.
Until next time,
Kenny Turnbull
P.S. If you’re looking to follow some tipsters whose results continue to hold up after their proofing period, then you can see all the tipsters I follow myself and recommend here: http://WinnersOdds.com/Tipster-Portfolio
